A GIS-BASED ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF PARCEL LAND-USE CHANGE IN A COASTAL TOURISM DESTINATION AREA Presented at the 1999 World Congress on Coastal and Marine Tourism Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

South Carolina is the nation’s second largest coastal resort state in terms of beach destination trips, superseded only by Florida. Its coastal resources and tourism industry are now undergoing tremendous coastal change due to tourism development and associated commercial and residential growth. As the negative elements of coastal change draw more public attention, and sustainable development becomes a goal for many coastal communities, the continuing coastal change associated with accelerated growth becomes a critical issue. Many agencies and organizations have initiated research programs to develop new techniques for obtaining timely and valid land-use change information to assist in coastal management. This study, as an integral part of a five-year multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional coastal research project funded by NASA/SC-EPSCoR, is designed to develop and apply GIS-based methodologies for analysis, modeling and prediction of coastal land-use change. It takes a micro approach to examine the parcel-based land-use change at the local scale. A spatial multivariate logistic regression model was developed and 20 variables were selected for predicting the possibilities of land-use change for Murrells Inlet. The results indicate that GIS has advantages over conventional methods in integrating various data sources, performing spatial analysis, modeling spatial process, and mapping the results in land-use change studies. It appears that building permits and parcel data should be used as alternative data sources for change detection and analysis because they contain detailed change information. They are available in digital format and can be updated on a regular basis as more local government agencies utilize GIS for creating and maintaining parcel maps. The logistic regression model used successfully predicted spatial land-use change. Both maps and statistical results show that the primary roads, commercial cluster, commercial zoning, private ownership, and land availability are significant predictor variables for commercial parcel land use. In addition, beachfront, open view, residential zoning, private ownership, land availability, primary roads and commercial centers are major factors that predict residential development. The results also indicate that Murrells Inlet has experienced tremendous land-use change over the last three decades. The recent period from 1982 to 1996 has brought about rapid residential growth, but little commercial development. The continuing growth appears to be transforming the area into a residential community for metropolitan Myrtle Beach. There is a significant difference in spatial preference between commercial and residential land uses with commercial parcels linearly distributed along the primary roads. As beachfront and waterfront areas are encroached mainly by seasonal homes, residential development moves inland though somewhat restricted by existing parklands and wetlands. Overall spatial patterns show that the area is lacking an integrated plan for development. Limited public access to waterfront and beachfront and the lack of a focal point in the business district are major problems from the tourism planning perspective.